Islanders must get off the (salary) floor — with Kovalchuk?

In yesterday's post I talked about wanting to see the Islanders spend a little above the salary floor. Then I thought, "That's easy for you to say, Mr. Moneybags, spending Charles Wang's hard-earned cash like that."

So I decided to crunch the numbers and try and determine how much I more I want the team to spend, and what would need to happen to cover that extra investment. It's a good thing I like math.

The NHL salary cap in 2010-22 is $59.4 million, with a salary floor of $43.4 million. According to NHLnumbers.com, the Islanders have almost $32.5 committed for next season, leaving them $11 million below the floor.

I'd like them to spend more, but how much more can we realistically ask? Halfway to the cap is $51.4 million, but there is no way that the Islanders would crack the $50 million mark, for psychological reasons alone.

What about $48 million? That’s not quite $5 million above the floor, enough to sign an impact free agent, either a scorer or a first-line defenseman. That would mean the Islanders would have $16 million to spend before the season starts, on free agents or re-signing players. You could do some damage with $16 million.

The Islanders must spend the floor, so we're asking Mr. Wang to cough up an extra $5 million. Presumably that money would add talent and make the team more successful, and more wins equals more fans, right? So how many more fans would need to show up at the Coliseum to cover that extra investment?

Last season the Isles drew an average of 12,735 to home games, or 78.1 percent of capacity. That put them 29th in the league in average attendance and 27th overall in percent of capacity.

The average ticket price last year was about $51.50 (I hear the prices are going up, but we'll use that figure). To get an extra $5 million, the Islanders would need to sell 97,000 more tickets, or about 2,400 per home game.

Assuming attendance this year would otherwise be about the same next season, those extra tickets would boost average attendance to 15,135, or 92.8 percent of capacity. Those figures would place the Islanders 21st in average attendance, or 20th in percent capacity.

In other words, we're not asking for much in terms of an attendance boost. It's not as if the Isles would need to sell out every game to cover that extra payroll expense. We'd just need the attendance to go from pathetic to slightly below average. Aim high!

That doesn't factor in that the Islanders' new sub-lease gives them more money from parking and concessions, or the fact that the team is benefitting from controlling all events at the Coliseum, including concerts.

Mo' money, mo' money, mo' money.

Which is to say, the Islanders in 2010-11 are in a much better revenue-generating position than they were when the 2009-10 season started.

So it is really that much to ask them to spend a little more on talent, knowing that they're going to make more money anyway, and that a better team will almost certainly produce enough of an attendance increase to justify the expense? And could you imagine if the team actually made the playoffs?

Of course, the easiest way to get off the floor — and draw more fans — is to spend $10 million a year on someone like, oh, Ilya Kovalchuk. And on Friday night, the news (rumors) started breaking that the Isles were pursuing Kovalchuk with the Kings. Then Snow confirmed the interest with Newsday.

Seems that Wang things a big gun like Kovalchuk would help push the Lighthouse forward or get some kind of deal done. And he's not been shy about big contracts for a marquee player.

Kovalchuk would certainly add a serious weapon, take pressure off Tavares and Moulson, and put fannies in the seats. Presumably, it would help the team win more games, creating the kind of juice that could ultimately help Wang get something close to what he wants regarding the Lighthouse.

Or maybe that's too much to ask.

Realistically, the Islanders don't even need A-list free agents. They don't need any "name" players to build marketing around because we already have Tavares, Okposo, Bailey, Weight and (if he ever sees the ice again) DiPietro. What the team does need is legitimate NHL talent to fill its needs, particularly a top-line defenseman and a top-six forward.
This team is getting close. There is lots of young talent here and the coaching and front office are on the right track with a plan. The fans are ready to see the team take the next step.

Kovalchuk would be one hell of a step.

Islanders opening night: On with the show!

Overture, curtain, lights!
This is it. We'll hit the heights!
And oh, what heights we'll hit!
On with the show, this is it!

You know what that's from, don't you? Answer at the end of the post (and if you're over 40 and you don't know, you didn't watch enough television as a child).

A few quick thoughts as we get ready for the Islanders' season opener Saturday night against the visiting Stanley Cup champs, the Penguins.

Doug Weight was named team captain, and it is the absolute right call. A team with so much youth needs a respected veteran as captain, and the players clearly hold Weight in high regard. Good call with Streit, Witt, Park and Okposo getting the 'A.' They all deserve it.

Charles Wang and Tom Suozzi announced the new lease, which will finally allow the Islanders to retain most if not all of the income from games, including ticket sales and concessions. Now they just have to get approval and build the Lighthouse. Piece of cake, right?

It will be refreshing to actually focus on hockey and not meetings and press conferences and politics, and hopefully the Coliseum will have a full house to greet the Pens with ire. And, of course, we'll get to see the NHL debut of John Tavares, who has some expectations to fulfill.

Kyle Okposo should be ready to play in the opener after suffering a mild concussion after being freight-trained by Dion Phaneuf. Here's the thing -- I watched the hit over and over, almost hoping to see something dirty. I didn't.

To anyone who thinks Phaneuf left his feet, his skates left the ice after the hit was made, and that was lucky for Okposo. It means some of the impact was felt by Phaneuf. It's simple physics, people.

Anyway, here's hoping Okposo can play his normal game and get back on the horse. Scoring a goal will help quite a bit in that regard.

In fact, let's see a few goals. Last season, if the opposition scored twice you knew the game was over. When Scott Gordon was hired there was a promise of fast-paced, high-scoring hockey. The pace was there but not the production.

One year later, maybe this mix of young forwards can start making things happen. Or at least make things exciting again.

Answer: It's a verse from the opening theme of The Bugs Bunny Show. You're welcome.

A reason for optimism in uncertain times

This is why we watch. Seeing Kyle Okposo hit his stride as he has the last four games, working alongside fellow youngsters Josh Bailey and Blake Comeau to give the Islanders three straight wins and seven points in their last four games, is exactly the reason why we tune in (in HD or not) or find a seat at the Coliseum.

The present may not be much to look at, but the future has potential. And again, that's all we asked for at the start of the season. Give us some hope. Show us that there is light at the end of the tunnel.

On the ice, it seems that way. Off the ice? Well, that's another story.

Newsday -- after stirring the pot by wondering whether the Isles could end up moving to Kansas City -- published an article Saturday underlining how the team's lease with Nassau County and SMG makes it extremely difficult for the team to leave.

What the article didn't include was how onerous that lease is. It is most likely the worst lease in professional sports. SMG reportedly gets all parking and concession revenues plus a third of ticket sales and advertising revenue.

So when you pay your $7 to park and plop down $20 for a beer, a hot dog and a pretzel, the Isles get bubkus. The team does get most, if not all, luxury box revenue, but that hardly balances things out.

Obviously, SMG guards that lease like a pit bull does a steak. SMG has refused to be bought out in the past, although the Milsteins offered a measly $7 million 10 years ago, nonsense considering SMG gets an estimated $2 million or more per year from its deal with Nassau County.

But while some would point to the Newsday story as evidence that the team isn't going anywhere (experts agreed that the language is very specific), that same story included a quote from another expert who stated the (somewhat) obvious:

"The only way out is through mutually acceptable negotiated termination," said attorney Scott Mollen of Manhattan, who writes about leases for the New York Law Journal.

There are six years left on the lease. Let's say the Town of Hempstead (which should share the spotlight with SMG as the villians in this whole fiasco) keeps stalling, or continues to press for a simple renovation of the arena, without the rest of the Lighthouse features. Let's say Charles Wang has enough of the nonsense and puts the team up for sale.

Now, let's say there is a prospective owner who wants to move the team to a new city with a sparkling new arena already in place (one that would give him the bulk of the game revenue instead of just a fraction). That owner could buy out the remainder of the lease with an offer of $20 million or more, knowing full well that he would earn that money back in a couple of years in his new city.

SMG could balk, forcing the team to stay and honor its lease. But when that lease is up for renewal, the Islanders would demand much better terms, so SMG's days of milk and honey would be over. SMG could just take the money and move on, which would pave the way for the new owner to move the team and leave the Coliseum without a primary tenant, and leave Nassau County and the Town of Hempstead with a LOT of 'splainin' to do.

Is that likely? Probably not. The Coliseum has been a money maker for SMG for years and it would be in their best interest to work out an arrangement with team ownership and the county to continue to manage the arena in the future.

But the "doomsday scenario" certainly is possible, and admitting so doesn't make one an alarmist. Just a realist.

Which is why the Lighthouse Project is so critical. It is everything. It is essential to the Islanders finally turning their fortunes around. Support it here.

Because it is clear that without the Lighthouse, the team's future could end up playing out elsewhere.